GREELEY -- A panel of economy watchers expressed concern about the direction of Northern Colorado's economy in 2008, with one economist saying the only question is how deep a recession it will bring.

Tucker Hart Adams, president of economic consulting firm The Adams Group LLC, told an audience of about 575 at Island Grove Events Center in Greeley on Tuesday that she was predicting another economic recession in 2008. Adams had accurately forecast a national recession in 1999, just before the dotcom bubble burst.

"If the United States is not already in an economic contraction, it will be very soon," Adams said. "I think it's 50-50 at this point whether this is going to be a mild versus a serious recession. But I see the real possibility of a serious economic downturn."

Adams said the "big unknown" is how bad the situation in the credit market is going to get. She cited a litany of recent bad economic news, including rising unemployment, a slump in housing construction, a credit "meltdown" in 2007 and polls that show Americans becoming more worried about the economy than about the Iraq war.

Adams' comments came at the Economic Forecast 2008 luncheon, sponsored by the Northern Colorado Business Report, where she joined local economists Martin Shields and John Green and commercial real estate specialist Dan Eckles with Realtec Downtown in Fort Collins in making predictions for the year.

Green also noted a number of negative economic factors being seen in the Northern Colorado region, including a drastic downturn in new housing starts. "We're at about 1992 levels in pulling new house permits," he said.

Green also noted that the number of new sales tax accounts -- an indicator of new business vitality -- had recently seen a "big, big drop."

"Entrepreneurs are actually not showing a great deal of confidence in our economy," he said.

Green said he expected more home foreclosures and bankruptcy filings in 2008 as the mortgage-financing crisis continues to play out.

All in all, Green said growth in Northern Colorado has been in negative territory for more than a year and only recently climbed out -barely.

"The monthly growth rate was barely positive in October after being 13 consecutive months in negative territory," he said. "Growth in Northern Colorado peaked in 2004 and has now fallen to about 1998 levels. Growth is slowing in Northern Colorado."

Shields was less negative in his economic predictions but still noted that real wage increases in the region have been stagnant for the last few years. Shields predicted "positive economic growth in 2008 but just barely," with the Northern Colorado region seeing about 1.9 percent growth.

Shields said he expected employment gains in all local sectors in 2008 and through 2010, with the business, technical, professional and scientific sector being "the growth engine" for that period.

While declaring the residential housing construction sector "comatose," Green said there are bright spots in the region's economy, including expected continuing employment growth in health care, a profitable agribusiness sector and a fairly healthy commercial construction sector. Eckles reviewed existing market conditions in various commercial sectors in Fort Collins, Loveland and Greeley, and the statistics supported Green's analysis.

While Adams was the most downbeat in her economic assessment, she said 2009 would likely have much better prospects as the housing and credit industries begin to rebound and federal interest rate cuts in 2007 begin to be felt.