The Northern Colorado economy is still growing strongly on a year-over-year basis. But our strong growth will soon moderate. Growth began in the second half of 2011 so year-over-year comparisons have been strong compared to the second half of 2010 and the first half of 2011. As we begin to compare annual growth with the stronger second half of 2011, our growth rate will moderate. I'm sure it will still be positive but not in the 25- to 35-percent range. I think it will come in somewhere in the 5- to 15-percent range.

The Index of Economic Growth in Northern Colorado bottomed out at about 200, double the 1991 base level for the Index. We had 15 years of strongly expanding economic growth and five years of economic contraction. Hopefully, our economy will double over the next 20 years without a 5-year downturn. The Index would then be 400 in 2030. The Index was at the 400 level in 2005 but we lost half of our growth momentum between 2005 and 2010. If we follow the same growth/contraction cycle, our economy might explode to an Index value of 800 in the early 2020s. That, however, is unlikely given resource limitations.

The U.S. economy continues to expand but much more slowly than the Northern Colorado economy. Preliminary,